I recall the exact moment that I began to believe it was possible that Trump would be the next POTUS. I was enjoying a post game beverage and ribs with my hockey team in February and our conversation led us to a discussion on Trump. A rather intoxicated middle aged women who overheard our banter stumbled over to our table and said something to the effect of “trump is a fucking asshole and I hope he dies”. My mates looked to me for my reaction and I said that I actually kind of like Trump’s economic policies because they….(abrupt cut-off here)….. before I could say anything I got a visceral tongue lashing “well that’s because you’re a racist pig..you fucking asshole prick..”. Or maybe it was that Trump was the asshole prick and she wished upon my death???

Like many people I have been fascinated by the spectacle of the American election. It’s been one amazing crazy story after another and that’s where my prediction comes into play. There is no question as to who has better debating skills but I am predicting that HRC will have a “Michael Dukakis” moment in the final debate or in the later stages of the campaign. She will be presented with a difficult question or revelation that she will be unable to pivot from.

Who the hell is Dukakis anyway? Back In July 1988 Democratic Governor Michael Dukakis held a 17 point lead over Big Daddy Bush but lost the race in November by 13 points…why? There were a series of events in the later stages of the Dukakis campaign that turned the tides, however chief among them was a response he gave to a question by CNN moderator Bernard Shaw in the final debate. But first some context: Willy Horton was a career criminal and convicted murderer who had benefited from the Furlough Program that Dukakis enacted as Governor of Massachusetts. A program that  gave hardened criminals a non-supervised  weekend pass. On one of those day passes Horton kidnapped a couple, stabbed the man and well…..fill in the rest. In the days following Shaw’s lead-off question at the final debate was to Governor Dukakis. Shaw challenged Dukakis that had Kitty Dukakis been raped and murdered would he support the death penalty. Here’s his response:

I remember watching it, it was shocking and what was more shocking was his response. Like a good democrat, he toed the liberal party line in a robotically dismissive response that stated something like “my position on this is clear, I don’t believe in the death penalty – blah, blah, blah…”.He showed no outrage, no passion, no discomfort from such an enraging and provocative question and I thought to myself (as I think  most Americas did) what a dickless & weak fraction of a man. That dispassionate response sunk him and he went on to lose the election to George Herbert Walker Bush.

There has been so much mudslinging in this campaign that I am not going out on a limb to suggest that there will be some political gaff, some secret deal or an event from the past that will be the downfall of one of these candidates in the later stages of the campaign. My prediction is that it will be something that calls into question HRC’s credibility and trustworthiness as a leader and the disillusioned and disenfranchised American voters will either not vote or they will vote for Trump. They will not vote for Trump because of who and what he is, a man of obviously flawed character, but because of who he isn’t.

Mark Gaudet